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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  October 5, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EDT

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european close on bloomberg markets. nejra: we are going to take you from new york to bogota and cover stories out of the u.k., china and washington in the next hour. here's what we are watching. monetary policy may be turning someaccommodative for economies. european central bank officials held discussions on the best way to bring quantitative easing to an end while fed officials talk up the chance of a rate hike in 2016. vonnie: we will get investors take on the many taper tantrum. riskacency is the biggest for investors, they say. an exclusive conversation with columbia's finance minister. a second day after
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failed peace accords to see if they can maintain a credit rating. look at how have a is trading. just under 30 minutes to the close of equity trading and it is quite extraordinary because we are seeing the spillover in the markets today from the bloomberg states that talked about an informal consent building in the ecb to rain and qe. , in other words. we have seen stocks falling. portugal down 1.3%, island down .7%, the ftse down .6%. that hit a record high yesterday before closing .4% below where that hit in may. the euro, we saw recouped losses on the ecb scoop. sterling pretty much unchanged,
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are looking at a three decade low for this currency on those concerns about a potential hard brexit. if we look at the bond markets, we see a bit of a selloff. the 10 year yield heading higher. yields and longer have been highlighted here. we see the curve steepening in europe if you look at the german curve. let's look at what is happening -- off by about .5%. real estate leading losses and banks leading the gains, up 1.2%. insurance companies up 1.1%. the biggest individual stock we have seen gaining today is tesco. this rally track over two days and this is after a
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reported first-half earnings that beat analysts estimates and set a target to restore its battered profit margins, showing that the plan to revive britain's's biggest grow sure is gaining traction. finally, i want to show you euro-sterling. we have talked a lot euro-dollar reaction. but in this move, we see sterling at its lowest level versus the euro in five years. 90 minutes into the trading session in the u.s., a bump up for stocks, near the highs of the session and energy shares leading some of the gains. we have seen bond yields rising and that has tended to benefit financials as of late. prices been watching oil , helping energy even more.
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$49.80 a barrel is where we are right now after an unexpected drawdown in crude oil inventories prefaced with the industry data we got last night. supplyould be more disruption related to hurricane matthew. we have seen a trend where --lysts have been predicted predicting building inventories and they have gone down. straight weekfth where the blue bar is the estimate. wherefth straight week analysts look for a build and instead, we have seen declines. shrinking inof a those inventories and that has been bullish for oil prices. twitter is once again on the list and the wall street journal reporting the company is set to field offers, emphasizing
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salesforce is among the bids. ceo is set to see twitter as at unpolished jewel. however, salesforce shares are down. the potential acquisition of twitter is near universally opposed. salesforce investors are viewing it quite differently. we are watching some of the telecoms today, talking about at&t and it new acquisition strategy. these tend to be interest rate sensitive. weaknessended to see in the telecoms when the weakness is higher. vonnie: let's check in on the bloomberg first word news with courtney donohoe. courtney: in brussels,
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prosecutors say to police officers have been stabbed in an incident that could be terror-related. the suspect was shot and wounded after the attack. belgium has been on high alert since two people were killed at the airport and subway in march. 's vice presidential candidate gave the campaign a break after a bad week. repeatedly brought up trump's most controversial statements and -- >> if you want to have a society where people are respected and respect laws, you cannot have someone at the top who demeans every group he talks about. mr. pence: you would know a lot about a insult driven campaign. it is mark. at a time of great challenge where we have weakened americans -- america's place in the world cup the campaign of hillary clinton and tim kaine has been avalanche of insult.
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pence on the say date. 42% say tim kaine one. hurricane matthew is on a elysian course with the u.s. east coast. at least 11 people have been killed. -- on a collision course with the u.s. east coast. it is expected to hit the bahamas tomorrow and possibly florida by tomorrow night. florida has called out the national guard and residents in the past have been told to evacuate. be one of the reasons behind the fatal train crash in new jersey. investigators say the train was traveling as much as three times the speed limit when it crashed into a rail station. one person was killed and more than 100 were injured. news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 100 20 countries. i'm courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. nejra: let's get back to the
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markets. falling withks emerging markets after bloomberg reported some ecb officials are discussing ways to bring quantitative easing to an end. joining us is the senior investment manager at aberdeen asset management. great to have you. as well as the selloff we have seen in stocks, i've talked about the euro, pretty much unchanged. but i want to show you what is happening with european bonds. we have seen the 10 year bond yields in italy surge to the highest since june and the 10 year spanish yield above 1% for the first time in two weeks. all of this to ask you whether this market reaction is an overreaction? what bloomberg news was actually reporting was not that the program is going to end early, just that it is going to be tapered as opposed to all the bond buying being taken away at once.
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nick: i think this shows you how nervous investors are. they have been kicking the can down the road for the years and you can only keep adding and extending that road for so long. anything that gives a bit of a hint spooks the market. the peripheral yields have been volatile. this is just another glimpse under the carpet of what the world will look like once qe is stopped. nejra: i did actually ask our reporter whether this was the ecb wanting to drop clues to see how the market might react in the event of tapering or any kind of pulling back of stimulus. do you see this developing into a much bigger taper tantrum? luke: a sneaking suspicion that this is just an ecb technical and talking about one of the many options they might have at
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the end of the road. i don't think they are really doing that -- it's not a very ecb thing to do. the market reaction is absolutely as it should do -- get some concern, don't be so complacent and let's think about what the world could look like. but i'm not so sure that is the ecb testing the waters. it seems a bit mild. the u.s.e spoke with had of strategies -- head of qeategies and he speculated would end this year. >> if you believe the ecb is going to taper, that should be euro-positive. the question is do they follow through? , theyhe end of the year will have an extension of qe4 another six months until september of 2017.
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vonnie: so things are going to continue on as they have been and this taper tantrum was just a test of the waters. do see the ecb tapering, it won't be a problem. see them extending qe4 a little longer. there's just not enough growth inflation or job creation going on to really lift out of it. what could be interesting is if we run into problems economically, what can the ecb do? how much can they do? that could be the employee and that could bethat the point that tests market appetite. we are in a volatile market and toward the end of enormously long move lower in yields. we're going to be volatile at the end of that move. how close we are to the end is ethical to judge, but we are
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close to the end. tie the ecb'sould hands? is it the amount of debt or the idea that there's just no more they have run out of supply according to their own rules? luke: they can change the rules to some degree. banks., look at the doneat mario draghi has and what the bank of japan has been saying. more negative rates and pains the bank takes his counterproductive. that's the test name toward the end of this move. back: i want to bring you to what you are saying about the bond markets, looking at the treasury market and the other big central-bank we have been hearing a lot about is the fed. the bond bull market is not over, low yields for five years,
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on the other hand you have jpmorgan and goldman calling for a 2% treasury yield by the end. where do you fit in this space? luke: at the moment, we are pretty neutral, kind of sitting on the fence a little bit. we're scared we're getting toward the end, but we are cognizant that we are actually in a slow growth area. we have seen growth come down a bit. there are enough things to support yields where they are but we are nervous about what this world looks like once they stop. on the fence for now, medium to long-term, we have a problem with bonds. two years, the next ok, but it is a nervous ok. nejra: luke is staying with us and we will talk about market complacency and more, coming up. vonnie: coming up tomorrow, the
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imf managing director, christine lagarde will join tom keene live from imf headquarters in washington. that conversation begins at 9:30 a.m. in new york. then u.k. chancellor philip hammond will join john nichols ways -- john mikel's waste. 10 -- at 3 p.m. london time. ♪
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vonnie: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm vonnie quinn. nejra: counting you down to the european close, about 15 minutes away. let's get back to our guests, the senior investment manager at aberdeen asset management.
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we were talking about the jitters in the market selloff by bloomberg-ecb scoop. there's a lot of talk about where the markets are -- we have mohamed el-erian saying the markets are not pricing and year in uncertainty. mark gilbert says we cannot take everything as a layman moment. i want to highlight this chart , the mosto-dollar traded current see pair. are the markets to complacent? luke: yes. almost by definition. have got to is with the central banks have wanted us to get to. i have suppressed volatility and those are the goals they have. they were hoping it would feature do they broader economy and that we could get out of .his in a nominal growth way
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for now, it is ok to be complacent. it's supported by those fundamentals being poor. but the risk here is as we shift to fiscal stimulus, in the u.k., we will see it with hammond's fiscal reset. we're getting a lot of pressure on europe, lots of pressure in japan for a fiscal reset. who knows who wins the euro selection, but we could get some pressure from one side. all of these could lift growth enough to spook markets and the bond market is going to drive this. 3, for your timescale, bonds are at the wrong levels where they are now. fromroblem is where you go there. don't be complacent. be aware the risks are rising against you. prepare your portfolio and don't just stick in it euro 10 year bonds or u.k. guild.
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where do you think volatility will come first? you are highlighting bonds. give me more specificity on what steps you take as an investor. controlling very much how our risk in the portfolios is made up. we are diversifying away from our core markets and u.k. and europe, thinking about maybe investing in the u.s. and oil markets. the u.s. is nice with the oil price popping up recently. a rising dollar environment, that should be the case. there are places you could go but at some point, we are going to have two short duration, bring down the amount of credit risk we've got a portfolios, and suppose -- and opposing always assets the central banks are buying. then going and finding something else to do with the money. just not yes. vonnie: bill gross mentioned
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yesterday that he had shifted around to go more short duration given the events of recent days. you don't think corporations have beefed up their balance sheet and kept so much cash on hand and not invested so much that when this all happens, we will still see fairly healthy earnings seasons and that will keep markets up on the equity side? luke: we've seen leverage rising steadily in the u.s. and starting to rise in european countries. these numbers are reducing the future growth potential of these businesses. maybe equities r.o.k.. -- maybe equities are ok. you've seen a big reaction, especially in the u.k. for might be a reaction
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somewhere for investors to go. he had to go. you have to get your returns somewhere and we've seen equity income be a particularly attractive area and that's why income like assets are often the equity markets today. we had can monahan on, a high-yield specialist. he's looking at corporate's in emerging markets. you mentioned emerging markets -- how are you investing there? luke: today's argentinian-euro -- in euros, it is huge. it's good value for sterling investors and dollar investors once you swap the currency back. those areas where you start to see the economy get itself together and move on are quite good. the other things we are looking at our chilean airlines, asian emerging markets, some good guys in these parts of the world who are helping us pick great
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stocks, both sovereigns and corporate. you have to be careful, as you do with every investment, but there are opportunities to be made. nejra: thank you so much. the senior investment manager from aberdeen investment management. the big question is whether markets are complacent or just don't know what to do. vonnie: bank of america out with a report saying something similar this morning. what is needed to spur growth in south america? this is bloomberg. ♪
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nejra:nejra: this is the european close with under 10 minutes left until the end of trading. now for the bloomberg business flash, a look at some of the biggest is the stories in the news right now. in americaustries expended at the fastest pace in
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almost a year according to the nonmanufacturing index. in all, the index its lowest level in 60 years. monsanto is forecasting lower than expected earnings. monsanto customers remain under pressure from low prices with depressed profits. that's after aggressive price cutting by monsanto and other seed companies. central bankscan to strike a balance between growth and inflation. a federal reserve policy normalization -- we went to the fed and we were very clear that we do not move pound for pound with the fed. we started tightening in january rate is ahe exchange significant risk to the inflation outlook. vonnie: he also said political
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noise in south africa reduces what investors want to see. let's take a look at where european markets are trading as we had to the close. we are seeing weaker trade in europe. the ftse 100 down after it hit a record high yesterday. on aax and cac 40 weaker mini taper tantrum because of the bloomberg story on the ecb. sterling still at a three decade low even though it is a little high today. but look at euro-sterling. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> live from london and new york, you are watching the european close. stocks finishing up the date in european trading. let's take you through the
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market action. a lot of action on the downside, spilling over over concerns over this news give yesterday -- news scoop about the ecb formal consent building to gradually rein in quantitive easing. taper talk causing jitters in the market. the stoxx 600, we are down on the day. it has snapped a six day winning streak that was its longest in one year. real estate down 2.8%. i will refresh this to get the latest. real estate leading the losses, financials the best performance at -- at 1.3%. i italian banks have been leading those gains. deutsche bank has been extending its gains into a fifth day. the stoxx 600, moving higher, off by 5/10 of a percent.
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confidence hit after report showed the euro zone economy losing steam. a pmi for manufacturing and servicing. volume of shares higher than the 30 day average in terms of volume of trading. this is the stoxx 600 intraday. the ftse 100, this set a record high yesterday before it closed for tenths of a percent below the record hit in a book 2015. below the record high, 7036.45, the ftse 100 off today. picture, thehe big function showing you that portugal yes i-20 down 1.4%. the ftse up almost 1%. the ftse 100 down 5/10 of 1%. the euro unchanged but keep an
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idea -- and i on euro sterling custard has dropped to the lowest level versus the euro in five years. speaking of sterling against the dollar, up to tenths of 1%, 1.2 755. yields higher on the 10 year, the 30 year and five year deal but 10 year yields have been rising in the core and referee. vonnie: taking a quick look at oil. it has been impacted by hurricane matthew and other geopolitical events. han -- conversations continuing. oil up 2.25%, close to $50 a barrel and print is more than $50 a barrel. rising 85 basis point and the king you're up to 1.72. we are slowly creeping up. speaking of -- dollar index pot
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up -- spot up. unchanged on the day. the broader markets, dow jones up 6/10 of 1%. .ot taking a cue from europe s&p up .5% and the nasdaq up 6/10 of 1%. for more on the nasdaq let's go to abigail doolittle. >> a nice rebound for the nasdaq after a somewhat bumpy yesterday . a broad-based rally, most sectors higher with the stocks getting a nice tailwind from oil , even buffering the 10 year yield rising which were difficult pressure stocks. with the recent trading, let's eat whether the index holds on to these games into the close. the biggest boost are some of the mega caps down yesterday. -- that were down yesterday, amazon and microsoft, the top two point boosts for the nasdaq. ,nother nice boost is netflix
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against the supportive or constructive backdrop of investors thinking the company could be taken out, some takeover chatter in general but specifically today we do have someone saying he believes that apple will not be acquiring netflix but they could partner with netflix. some investors may like that idea, a safety cushion for netflix. new capital in chicago initiating with a by. david miller saying he believes the second quarter subscriber miss was a bump in the road and the company would return to geeking and meeting quarters -- beathing and meeting quarters. vonnie: let's check in on the first word news. more from the newsroom. >> the most this of the outline on what the brexit negotiation. promised or theresa may's
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government has ruled out and contributions to the eu budget to allow british companies to allow access to the single market. a first person says there will be no compromise on immigration, lawmaking, and freedom from the jurisdictions of the european judges. the leader of uk independence party has quit after just 18 days on the job. diane james said it was clear she did not have the support of party officers or of her european parliament colleagues. uk independence party has campaigned on an anti-immigration platform and it became a serious political force under nigel farage. than 70 nations promised another four years of development aid to afghanistan today. those attending a conference in brussels were expected to place more than $3 billion, and acknowledgment that afghanistan is far from paying its own way. in its fight with the taliban and internal political strife. vladimir putin called for his country's lawmakers to stay united despite differing political views.
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his united russia party holds a record 343 of 450 seats. he spoke about the right of countries to be powerful, stressing that russia never dictates to other countries what choices they should be making. the u.s. and canada gearing up for another war -- war over trees, officials meet in toronto trying to resolve a fight over softwood lumber that has been going on for decades. the u.s. could see to impose terrorists of more than 30% on canadian lumber producers which could force some of them to shut down mills. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts and more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. nejra: thank you. european union is hoping to prevent the failure of derivatives clearing houses, what some are calling the new two big to fail. byer draft legislation seen bloomberg, authorities would be granted sweeping powers to step in should a clearinghouse the on
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the brink of collapse. joining us is financial regulation reporter john glover. a great story by the way, outlined for us what has changed. what has changed is that the european union now is taking in the fact that clearinghouses are potential threats to systemic -- the financial system. if things go wrong. they take the risk out of the banks. that is what went wrong during the financial crisis. they have stuffed it into clearinghouses. if the clearinghouses go wrong, go very, very wrong, now they are not approaching the framework, they have put together the framework and reaching the final shape. that document was a draft of a law -- regulation that will
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probably come out later on this year. nejra: tell us, what are they concerned could go wrong and how are they planning to stop it? >> what could go wrong is that probably a clearing member, probably a big bank, they would default on its obligation to the clearinghouse. the bank on one side of a trade, a derivative bet, is betting with clearinghouse. but it is set up so the other side of the trade, a buy side fund is betting with the clearinghouse. the bank would be in default of the clearinghouse for some reason. at that point you have a bank falling over and the clearinghouse that needs to make good, the other side of the trade, you have a big bank falling over in the
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clearinghouse looking wobbly. you have a systemic threat. vonnie: was this in response to the brexit vote, getting its act together quickly, seems to be happening fast and clearinghouses are necessary for the financial system. >> absolutely. a dingdong about who goes where. part of the proposal is that the european central bank would be able to supply liquidity to a clearinghouse that was in need of it which would give mr. draghi a strong argument that the clearinghouses should be located in the euro area. to have access to the central banks. vonnie: -- nejra: thank you. vonnie: i will be facing off with julie hyman, it is -- is a bear market on the horizon? ♪
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nejra: time for the global battle of the chart where we look at some of the most telling chart of the day and what they mean for investors. axis the start on the bloomberg by running the function featured at the bottom of your screen. senior markets correspondents julie hyman kicks things off. chart, weking at her have a dim view potentially. i am looking at private investment in things like equipment. capital investment versus the s&p 500. , andave capital investment white come s&p 500 in yellow. they both have tended to fall and continued through the recession.
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2001, both went outcome of the recession in 2800 2009 both of them going down but currently and the blue light is a zero line, the s&p 500 continued to go up, make new highs. we have seen the investment go down. when you see a divert its like this with historically they have moved sort of together going into recessions, it calls into question if one of these things -- is one of these things lighting come is the s&p set -- s&p 500 set for a fall or will it somehow rebound? a question to ponder as people ask how stable is the recovery, how robust is it? this is a chart we look at as we consider that question. 4026 is the number of the chart. nejra: what do you have? vonnie: along the same lines. nyseort that shows the
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that margin, credit margin. , as theous bear markets net margin has increased, the s&p has turned lower and gone into a bear market. at these levels, the s&p higher than it has been in the previous occasions. the net margin obviously much larger. the question is -- what does this mean? we will need a doozy of a correction to extinguish the current negative balance shown in this chart. the question is -- will this happen? bank of america merrill lynch is one of the latest to suggest we are looking at a looming recession if the economy maintains its current course. an early warning would be the yield curve, manufacturing, pieces of data. guess who else is a target at 2000, hsbc. the number for that chart is
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4029. nejra: love both charts. a tough one. i want to tie you but we do not do that on this show. i will give you the edge, bonnie -- vonnie, ever so slightly more doom mongering. julie: is that what the criteria is now? nejra: still to come, and exclusive conversation with the finance minister for columbia -- from columbia. this is bloomberg. ♪
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nejra: live from other than new york. vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. time -- nejra: time for the business flash, a look at biggest business stories in the news. a turnaround plan at the u.k. biggest grocery chain appears to beginning traction.
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they reported first-half earnings that beat estimates, operating profit rose 60%. their ceo lowered their prices and their wrote product ranges and improved customer service. is stillsh economy showing resilience in the wake of the brexit vote. the u.k. service industry grew saysptember, the market that will cast doubt on the need for more stimulus from the bank of england. the central bank cut interest rates after the brexit vote blow -- was that for consumer topics. by 20 protest mcdonald's by 2020 will buy all this copy from sustainable source. give it a shot in the battle for customers increasingly concerned about where their food is coming from. is the latest business flash. vonnie: big moves in columbia, after voters narrowly rejected a
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peace deal that would have ended a 52 year war between the government and the guerrilla movement. for more let's go to erik schatzker who has an exclusive interview. erik: we are delighted to welcome the finance minister, mauricio cárdenas with us from washington, d.c. thank you, mr. minister. written found out the hard way it was a mistake to hold a national referendum. some might say you may have learned the same top lesson this past weekend. -- top lesson this past weekend but you may have a second chance. how would you change the peace agreement or a next disagreement with the marxist guerrilla rebels to ensure approval by the colombian people? >> that is part of the conversation taking place in columbia with the leaders of no movement because we are against these agreements. withwill have to come up
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whatever they think is the adjustment that needs to be made to the agreement because the sentiment in columbia is that everyone wants peace. number oneombia's goal. we hope that those leading the movement against peace, with the ideas and with the proposals. course, they also have to agree to those adjustments. let's hope that these conversations are successful and that we secure a piece agreement. hope and whate .eeds to happen
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with investors are voting their feet, peso is one of the worst currencies, your spreads have widened, short of a new deal with the farc, which we will not see in the next several days, how do you rebuild investor confidence? >> the economy in colombia has remained strong, regardless of these political changes this is a democracy. we have had difficulties with farc and peace for years and decades. the eight that -- the economic institutions are resilient. at the same time, the government has been able to secure a working coalition in congress to pass the economic agenda. last night we were almost until midnight in the senate approving a law which is controversial but shows the strength of the coalition. liquor.ess on taxes on
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this means there is the coalition which allows for economic decisions to be made. that gives confidence to investors. erik: you are saying it is business as usual, that the failure to pass this historic peace agreement does not matter? >> it should not have major implications on the economy. , this political scene means the peace agreement will take longer. we will need to do more in terms of the negotiations and to make sure that some adjustments are made to the agreements. it should not interfere with the economic agenda, as was proven last night when a very difficult law was passed in congress. on economic issues there should not be any major changes. erik: you need to pass a tax reform bill to fix colombia public finances.
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if the government wants support for the next peace agreement, how is now the right time to be raising taxes? >> this is something that has for aebated in colombia long time, our people understand a tax reform is necessary. this is not something for the benefit of the administration's, this is for the medium and long-term. colombia needs to generate additional revenue for the government to replace what was lost because of oil. day, it will the prevail, what always has prevailed in colombia, which is responsibility and on the part of congress, and understanding. not estimate having to make trade-offs in order to win -- you need popular support for negotiations with the farc. erod populare support by
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taking money from people, you cannot have it both ways. >> people understand that tax reform is necessary in order to keep a number of government programs, especially those targeted to the poor, at the same time, people in colombia want peace. they may want some adjustments to what was agreed and what was the outcome of those negotiations but these agendas are totally compatible, the economic agenda, strengthening the public financing and at the same time continuing bps weotiations to make sure have an agreement acceptable to all colombians. erik: how much money do you need to raise through the tax reform bill and if you do not be determined, what happens to the credit rating for your country? >> let me start by saying the markets are showing they have confidence in colombia.
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there was some depreciation of our currency early on this week but really our currency is still quite strong. year, compare it to this it is one of the strongest, our currency has appreciated this year. in terms of the revenues, we do not need all the revenues at once. something that will need to be increasingly introduce in terms of revenues during the next few years to comply with our own fiscal rules and our fiscal rules restrict. our debt to gdp ratios are low, 40%. they will be falling in the next few years. that is what assures markets and that is ultimately what determines the credit ratings. colombia has a triple the rating. -- triple d rating. we will do what is necessary to keep the rating. erik: thank you for spending
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time with us. that is mauricio cárdenas, the finance minister of colombia with us and washington, d.c. vonnie: thank you both, how to the end of the day in europe finished? , the stoxx 600ay was down about 5/10 of 1%. the ftse 100 down 16th of 1% after a record high yesterday. let's switch the board and look at currencies. it impacted the euro yesterday here in euro sterling down to tenths of 1%. that is it for the european close, this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: covering stories everywhere this hour. global bonds are sliding on projects of the european central bank may reduce monetary stimulus as fed officials talk of the chances of higher interest rates in the united states. in a rare interview, we set down with one processor very, the former -- the ceo of the largest they control oil producer, he's planes fly the risk of a peace agreement falling apart is not material to the business. a big of what he was rarest gems and diamonds. -- pink diamond. they are one in a million, they were revealed that invitation only doing so we have a preview today. halfway into the u.s. trading day, julie joins us with the


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